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业绩符合预期，期待创新产品商业化表现
业绩符合预期，营收稳健增长。公司发布2023年一季报：2023Q1实现营业收入7.47亿元，同比增长10.50%，环比增长9.02%；归母净利润1.39亿元，同比增长86.86%，主要系处理非流动资产等非经常性损益波动所致；扣非后归母净利润为1.28亿元，同比增加1.47%。销售、管理、研发费用分别为2.40、0.38、0.26亿元，同比增速为7.46%、4.92%、0.24%，费用率分别为32.13%、5.12%、3.54%。经营活动产生现金流净额-1.46亿元，同比减少668.32%，主要是受票据贴现业务影响。公司在一季度受疫情扰动的情况下还能保持营收的稳健增长以及费用的相对可控，体现出其核心业务较强的竞争力以及团队较高的执行效率。
技术革新，巩固中药业务护城河。中成药是公司的核心业务，其中复方血栓通系列药物经济学价值突出，多年保持良好的增速；公司还将通过技术革新，推进休眠产品的复产公关工作；积极探索新的中药注册方向，包括经典名方、院内制剂等；将依托产地资源优势，充分开拓高品质大健康产品。
创新成果落地，打造第二增长曲线。公司在一季度取得多个创新进展：公司自主研发的来瑞特韦片剂及原料药于3月23日获得国家药监局批准上市，用于治疗轻中度COVID-19成年患者；ZSP1273片已完成Ⅲ期临床入组，用于预防和治疗甲型流感及人禽流感，预计将于明年上市。呼吸领域两款重磅产品将产生协同，成为公司的第二增长曲线。同时公司还在代谢、肿瘤领域开展多个创新药临床项目，将继续增厚创新产品管线：ZSP1603拟用于治疗特发性肺纤维化，处于II期；ZSP1601是首个完成健康人药代及安全性临床试验的用于治疗NASH的国内创新药项目，已完成Ib/IIa期。
盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司2023-2025EPS分别为0.64、0.74、0.85元/股，公司Q1表现符合我们的预期，持续看好公司核心业务的稳健性以及创新药的推进节奏。参考可比公司，给予公司23年40xPE，合理价值为25.48元/股，维持“买入”评级。
风险提示。集采降价超预期，管线进度不及预期，产品放量不及预期。
