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三大新品放量可期,盈利能力持续提升
核心观点:
聚焦医药制造主业,财务表现获得大幅优化。2021年公司确认聚焦医药制造主业的核心发展战略,陆续转让佰骏医疗等与主业不相关业务,优化资产负债结构,大幅提升盈利能力。公司医药制造收入从2020年的9.6亿元增长到2022年的14.4亿元,CAGR为22.8%,同期毛利率提升2.5pp至75.9%。公司2022年扣非归母净利润1.1亿元,加回2022年确认的已转让业务亏损1684万,我们测算公司净利率在6.9%。
三大新品毛利率高,未来放量可期。强力枇杷膏(蜜炼)是独家剂型,含有罂粟壳、枇杷叶等成分,是医保甲类和国家基药品种,未来将通过强化营销能力快速提升收入;小儿荆杏止咳颗粒2019年12月获批,2020年纳入国家医保目录,含蜜麻黄等有效成分,医保谈判价为32.94元/3袋,中高端儿科医院准入顺利,未来有望进入基药目录;玄七健骨片2022年纳入医保,医保谈判价为37.20元/12片,含延胡索等有效成分,针对中老年退行性骨痛等适应症,市场开拓刚处于起步阶段。
藤黄健骨片竞争格局优化,整合资源布局化学药。2023年6月21日国家发布中成药集中带量采购拟中选结果,核心竞品藤黄健骨胶囊未入选,公司中选价格为20.46元/36片,价格降幅为42%,由于核心竞品未入选,公司以价换量竞争格局大幅优化。公司骨伤科2022年收入为3.68亿元,主要由藤黄健骨片贡献,预计集采落地后单品盈利贡献将保持稳定。公司通过与业内CRO合作,整合代理商和地方政府资源,布局化学药,未来也是公司的一块业务增长点。
盈利预测与投资建议。预计公司23-25年EPS分别为0.40、0.57、0.74元/股。参考可比公司估值,考虑到公司产品优势,给予公司23年40倍PE,对应合理价值16.06元/股,首次覆盖,给予“买入”评级。
风险提示。产品放量不及预期,研发进展不及预期、行业政策风险等。