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跟踪分析报告：人造草坪方兴未艾，全球龙一迎需求与利润率的双重改善
行业：方兴未艾。2021年全球人造草坪需求3.5亿平，2015-2021年GAGR=12.6%，其中休闲草占比53.2%，2015-2021年休闲草/运动草需求CAGR分别为22.0%/6.0%，预计休闲草在发达国家渗透率仍偏低，性能&成本较天然草更优，随市场培育、消费者认知强化，渗透率向上空间广阔。
格局：加速集中。21年全球行业产量CR5=41%，行业龙头共创草坪市占率18%，较19年+3pct。海外品牌得益本土化铺装团队，在相对成熟的运动草领域份额较高。休闲草市场仍在培育期、产品零售属性更强，成本&渠道力成为胜负手。
催化：需求&盈利共振。受需求及去库压制，22年我国人造草坪出口14.3亿美元，同比-10%，2023年1-5月出口金额同比+3%，实现扭正，其中3、4月单月出口金额同比+20%、+17%，受益美国经济预期修复，下游拿货积极性增强。此外，有利的利率环境和原材料价格有望进一步增厚盈利。
调整盈利预期，维持“强推”评级。公司作为行业稳定龙一，优势突出。墨西哥基地强化交付效率、助力份额扩张。短期业绩受益汇率&原材料，长期看行业空间向上、格局集中趋势确定。考虑原材料价格以及汇率贡献的影响，我们调整公司盈利预期，预期2023-25年归母净利润5.3/5.9/6.8亿元（23-25年前值5.1/6.1/6.9亿元），对应PE分别为17/15/14x。根据DCF模型给予公司目标价31.3元，对应23/24年PE分别为24/21x，维持“强推”评级。
风险因素：下游需求不及预期，原材料价格持续上行
