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深度研究报告：技术积淀深厚，“新能源+传动”双引擎助力公司快速发展
专注于电能变换及控制领域，打造“新能源+传动”双引擎战略布局。公司依托电能变换技术不断拓展，实现风电、光伏、传动、SVG、储能多产品线布局，现已成为国内新能源领域最具竞争力的电气企业之一。公司管理层多名高管都曾任职于艾默生和华为电气，领先的产品与技术是公司未来长期发展的核心竞争力。虽然22年公司新能源电控业务毛利率下降较多，但是从公司公布的季度经营数据来看，自22年Q2毛利率触底到19.5%以后，已经连续三个季度毛利率逐季度增加，23Q1已达到27.9%。此外，公司高毛利、高壁垒的电气传动业务正成为公司新的增长引擎，22年毛利占比已达19.5%。
公司风电变流器技术领先，有望受益风光装机容量高增。从政策规划来看，截止22年底国内沿海省市“十四五”规划合计新增风电装机310.27GW，其中海上风电相关规划新增装机量达65.29GW，海风发展提速，预计23-25年海风新增装机量CAGR达41.42%。同业比较来看，公司风电变流器业务发展较早，其在电网适应性、环境适应性与负载适应性仍处于技术领先地位，掌握多变换器并联的拓扑结构、IGCT中压变流器、级联中压变流器平台等技术，顺应变流器大容量化发展，与国内10多家整机厂商形成稳定的合作关系，品牌优势有助公司持续巩固行业地位，未来有望受益风光装机容量高增。
光储氢一体化进程加速，公司持续开发新品打开成长空间。在光伏领域，公司全系列光伏组串式中小功率光伏发电系统和集中式大功率光伏发电系统方案并举，布局分布式光伏发电系统，提高公司产品的市场竞争力和品牌形象。在储能领域，公司未来将基于新的器件、拓扑、控制技术和加工工艺，推出新一代更大容量、更高电压、更高功率密度及更高可靠性的逆变器/PCS产品及集成系统，深度布局分布式光伏发电系统及储能系统，战略布局半导体公司，利好公司长期发展。在氢能领域，公司制氢电源可广泛应用于电解水制氢系统，与深圳大学能源研究院在氢能领域建立合作，公司产品已实现实际应用，未来有望加速开拓市场。
传动变频器国产替代中，公司工程传动技术优势凸显。在高效节能的市场需求与国家鼓励政策驱动下，国内变频器市场规模稳步提升。当前欧美变频器仍然占据市场主流，未来随着国产变频器产品质量不断提高，国内厂商有望获得更多市场份额。公司提供多种电压和功率等级的变频器，项目经验丰富，涵盖冶金、中压大传动、石油、起重、试验台、矿山等多个高端工业领域。公司1GCT变频器性能更佳，目前市场上工业大传动产品国产化率提升空间广阔，未来公司有望凭借技术优势加速开拓市场。
投资建议：综上，我们看好公司长期发展前景，预计公司2023-2025年归母净利润为4.55亿元、6.54亿元、8.88亿元，对应PE分别为29、20、15倍。参考可比公司估值，同时考虑到公司在传动业务领域的稀缺性，合理享受一定估值溢价，给予23年业绩40倍PE估值，对应目标价为41.2元，首次覆盖，给予“强推”评级。
风险提示：光伏及风电装机不及预期；产品价格及毛利率下行；储能需求不及预期。
