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动态跟踪报告:乘油服景气之风,深化改革紧抓降本增效
公司是中石化集团控股的中国大型的综合油气工程与技术服务专业公司,拥有油田服务全产业链的服务能力。公司拥有超过60年的经营业绩和丰富的项目执行经验,是中国一体化全产业链油服领先者,控股股东为中国石油化工集团有限公司。公司先后在中国20多个省开展了油气工程作业,海外30多个国家执行油田技术服务项目,已成为沙特、科威特和厄瓜多尔国家石油公司市场有重要影响力的石油工程技术服务承包商。公司主营地球物理、钻井工程、测录井、井下特种作业和工程建设五大业务板块,涵盖了从勘探、钻井、完井、油气生产、油气集输到弃井的全产业链过程。
上游资本开支维持高位,全球油服景气度回升。2023年,全球上游资本开支在2022年高基数的基础上仍保持一定增长,全年上游勘探开发投资为5687亿美元,同比增长10.6%。油气勘探开发投资力度不断加大,油田服务市场持续复苏。RystadEnergy预计在传统能源投资和新能源投资同时增长的背景下,全球能源服务市场将在2025年升至1万亿美元的峰值,并在此后数年保持在高水平。
借助集团资源,公司积极开拓海外市场业务。中国石化集团与“一带一路”沿线国家在油气资源投资、炼化仓储投资、石油工程技术服务、炼化工程技术服务、油气化工品及设备材料贸易等领域开展合作,形成了利长远、惠民众、可持续的合作模式。近两年,随着“一带一路”倡议持续推进,叠加海外油服市场景气回暖,公司借助中国石化集团与海外国家良好的合作关系,积极开拓海外市场业务,海外营业收入及海外新签合同金额较往年均有显著增长。
持续推进降本增效,紧抓人力、资产两大痛点。公司在《关于2024年度“提质增效重回报”行动方案的公告》提出,2024年全年力争压减用工3000人以上、统筹盘活1.6万人次以上、全员劳动生产率提高8%,力争对外业务承揽或输出7000人以上、创收人民币3亿元以上。加快资产运营公司建设,搭建集中保障服务共享平台,实现公司资产的统筹调剂、租赁、处置及招标的专业化整合,精准做好资产统筹配置,借势发展循环经济,提升公司资产使用效率和净资产收益率,提升资产运营创收创效能力。2016年-2023年,公司员工总人数从80551人降至63392人,下降22%,且近三年保持年均近3000人的下降规模;人均创收从52.77万元增长至126.17万元,增长139%。
投资建议:国内外油服行业景气度持续高企,公司新签合同额超预期完成,降本增效持续推进,有望实现盈利能力的持续增长。我们维持公司24-26年盈利预测,预计24-26年公司归母净利润分别为10.08、12.62、14.50亿元,对应的EPS分别为0.05、0.07、0.08元/股,维持对公司A股和H股的“增持”评级。
风险分析:原油价格波动风险、政策落实不到位风险、项目建设进度不及预期风险、境内外业务拓展及经营风险、汇率风险。