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来水转丰控参股水电利润齐增,看好Q3利润释放
事件:川投能源发布2024年半年报。公司2024H1实现营业收入6.03亿元,同比+10.24%,实现归母净利润23.02亿元,同比+9.74%;其中Q2实现营业收入3.46亿元,同比+16.41%,实现归母净利润10.29亿元,同比+7.01%。2024H1公司投资收益为24.12亿元,同比+1.12亿元。结合公司经营数据,我们点评如下:
点评:来水转丰带动子公司与参股公司利润齐增。2024H1得益于控股水电上网电量同比+18.25%,子公司田湾河公司、川投电力分别实现净利润0.84、0.42亿元,同比+0.97%、+225.78%,度电净利润约0.08、0.05元/度。参股企业方面,同样因二季度流域来水偏丰影响,雅砻江水电2024Q2上网电量同比+37.38%、2024H1同比+9.39%;由于来水主要自6月大幅好转,其享受汛期电价影响整体电价结构,2024Q2雅砻江水电上网电价为0.309元/度,同比-9.65%,2024H1上网电价同比-1.85%。综合量价情况,雅砻江水电上半年实现净利润44.04亿元,同比+2.53%,度电净利润0.12元/度,公司确认投资收益21.13亿元,同比+0.53亿元;并且公司获其2023年现金股利28.8亿元,分红比例有所提升。大渡河水电、中核汇能分别确认投资收益1.47、0.99亿元,同比+0.62、+0.05亿元。此外,伴随可转债转股及利率下行,财务费用有所减少,2024H1同比-0.99亿元;资产负债率降至34.89%。
展望:看好三季度水电业绩加快释放。7-8月水库流量依旧维持高位,三季度主业与投资收益有望进一步增厚。此外,参股企业利润仍存增厚空间,截至2023年末,雅砻江水电在建及核准水电机组372万千瓦,且流域仍有较为充足开发资源,水风光互补基地亦带来绿电增长空间;“十四五”期间四川省内交流工程陆续落地,叠加双江口(年调节)水电站预计于2025年投产,大渡河水电盈利能力或迎较大边际弹性。
盈利预测:维持“增持”评级。公司持有雅砻江水电48%、大渡河水电20%股权,投资收益稳健且有望进一步增厚,主业正处于业绩修复期。我们预测其2024-2026年归母净利润分别为50.34、54.02、56.31亿元,同比+14.4%、+7.3%、+4.2%,对应8月15日收盘价的PE估值分别为18.1x、16.9x、16.2x。
风险提示:来水不及预期、原材料价格上行、市场化交易导致电价波动风险、宏观经济风险